Bitcoin at $66044.69 eyes inflation surge as WTI crude-to-US10y ratio forms falling channel after March spike, with EMA50 support at $64827.36.

According to Charlie Bilello, the Federal Reserve’s cumulative 150 bps in rate cuts are an unnecessary easing that will fuel inflation, and he argues cuts do not create jobs given what he calls the weakest labor market since 2020 (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 9, 2025). For trading, such a critique can prompt positioning for higher inflation expectations and rates volatility around FOMC signals, with USD moves historically linked to BTC via a negative BTC-DXY correlation (sources: CME Group FedWatch for rate-pricing; Binance Research, 2023, on BTC-DXY correlation). BTC and ETH have shown sensitivity to US real yields in past cycles, with lower real yields aligning with stronger crypto performance (source: Glassnode Insights, 2023). Crypto traders can monitor DXY, Treasury real yields, and breakeven inflation as catalysts for short-term direction following policy-easing headlines (sources: Federal Reserve H.15 for yields; FRED TIPS breakevens).

According to @lisaabramowicz1, Walmart’s earnings highlight two trading-relevant points: a planned switch from the NYSE to the Nasdaq to emphasize its technology positioning, and rising costs that are likely to flow through to consumer prices in the coming months, which traders should factor into inflation and margin expectations. source: @lisaabramowicz1 on X BTC and ETH have shown periods of positive rolling correlation with the Nasdaq in 2023–2024, so shifts in tech-equity risk sentiment from a Walmart-led tech narrative can spill over into crypto volatility and directional bias. source: Kaiko Research 2024 If retail prices rise, they feed directly into CPI components per official methodology, making Walmart’s cost pass-through a potential near-term input for inflation-trackers and rate expectations. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI Handbook Historically, stickier inflation and higher real yields have been associated with headwinds for digital asset returns and increased volatility in BTC and ETH, reinforcing the need to monitor inflation-sensitive catalysts. source: Coinbase Institutional Research 2023; ARK Invest, Big Ideas 2023 Trading takeaway: Watch for timing and magnitude of Walmart price pass-through, gauge Nasdaq risk tone for crypto correlation, and manage BTC/ETH exposure into CPI and rates events if retail price pressures materialize. source: @lisaabramowicz1 on X; Kaiko Research 2024; U.S. BLS CPI Handbook; Coinbase Institutional Research 2023

According to @KobeissiLetter, Polymarket now prices a 53% probability that the Fed makes no rate cut at its December 2025 meeting, placing no change above the odds of a 25 bps cut for the first time; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X citing Polymarket. The post states that markets are worried about inflation, highlighting why no-change odds have overtaken cut odds; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X. For trading, crypto market participants can reference the Polymarket contract as a real-time gauge of rate-cut expectations when managing BTC and ETH exposure around Fed communications and macro data; source: Polymarket data referenced by The Kobeissi Letter.

According to the source, President Donald Trump said on Nov 9, 2025 that opponents of tariffs are fools and claimed the U.S. has almost no inflation and a record stock market in a public post on X (source: President Trump's X post, Nov 9, 2025). Historically, tariff actions like the 2018–2019 measures raised U.S. import prices nearly one-for-one and increased consumer costs, implying inflationary pressure if similar policies advance (source: U.S. International Trade Commission 2023 report on Section 301 tariffs; source: Peterson Institute for International Economics 2019 analysis). Inflationary tariff risk can lift rate expectations and tighten financial conditions, a headwind for risk assets, while crypto has moved more in sync with equities since 2020 (source: Federal Reserve 2023 Monetary Policy Report; source: IMF 2022 analysis showing elevated BTC–S&P 500 correlations). Trade policy uncertainty has historically coincided with higher volatility and safe-haven demand that can support the U.S. dollar and pressure dollar-denominated crypto such as BTC and ETH (source: BIS Quarterly Review September 2019 on trade policy uncertainty; source: IMF 2019 World Economic Outlook on rising trade barriers). Traders should monitor U.S. inflation expectations, 10-year Treasury yields, DXY, and BTC-USD/ETH-USD for headline-driven moves tied to tariff rhetoric (source: Federal Reserve 2023 on policy transmission to financial conditions; source: IMF 2022 on crypto–equity co-movement).